Sunday, August 16, 2009

Can India contain China?

Of all the threats, which India faces, the biggest is China. Other threats like Pakistani Army attitude and terrorists are proxy threats. China represents a threat in itself. India and China are two civilizations and a conflict between these two will be a civilizational conflict. Chinese Proxy Pakistan has been engaged by USA for good. Notwithstanding the Pakistani Army macho claims on its successes on Taliban and Taliban controlled areas, is Pakistan Vietnam in making. Wake up call for Pakistan fixated Indian myopic leaders and military generals that its time India looks at containing the real problem: China.

India has no credible strategy in place to contain China. The current Congress leadership is more interested in keeping themselves in power and Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi have better relations with China than what India has. The fact is that, Indians have been living under the shadow of Chinese ballistic missiles positioned in Chinese occupied Tibet (COT) and live a borrowed life. There are no means to protecting ourselves and we have very little options to hurt China in mainland.More than Indian policies, the US policies have helped India to address our foreign policy problems. Former US President Bush had gifted us the nuclear deal and President Obama has tried to impress upon Pakistan that India is no threat. Former US President Bush had also proposed to make India as a counter weight to China. Now, many in India resented this.
We live under the shadows of Chinese nuclear and missile threat. China has supplied nuclear bomb design, nuclear components and missiles among other things to Proxy Pakistan. It has tried to rally our neighbors against us. Contained and created difficulties for us diplomatically in world forums. The list of Chinese mechanisations goes on.

Internally, Nehru-Gandhi family which ruled India for obnoxiously long years have been busy “managing” Indians than foreign threats. It holds true even today. Chinese have played their part well too. They disregard the “other” Indian leadership and court Nehru-Gandhi family. The Indian communists have been Pro China to such an extent that, they look anti-Indian. The Indian military (except navy) has not gone for incremental development and deployment of indigenous equipment compared to what Chinese Forces have done. This has brought us to a foreign dependence. If we buy foreign defence equipment, we experience reliability, legal and diplomatic issues, while Indian military leaders would not allow internal development. The problem has been compounded by the trade unions (mostly Communist controlled) who don’t allow to changes in quality military production set up and the communist want every deal with US and Israel canceled. As for the Indian right wingers go, they have a sound policy on international relations, but, they are communal in outlook and hurt common man with their fascist tendencies.

On China front, India did take some steps militarily. This includes deploying Agni missiles on Chinese border, shifting Su-30 MKI to airfields facing China, sending naval ships to exercise with Japanese and funds for development of border with China to name major initiatives. Nevertheless, India lacks a composite strategy to engage China and whatever strategy exists today is merely reactionary.

Look at India’s private sector. Indian private sector has competed against Chinese government based companies and bettered them. Chinese recognize the strength of Indian private sector. When a Chinese official comes to India, he wants to spend more time with Indian companies after finishing the diplomatic necessities with government. An Indian businessperson is more likely to be given visa in china than an Indian government official.

China will attack India when others are busy and is advantageous for China. Will India ever attack china even when it feels advantageous?

Second question is the location of Chinese threat. Chinese army is deployed on the higher ground and Indian Army is deployed on the lower ground. Chinese disadvantage of moving troops and equipment over the occupied Tibetan is overcome by feats in road construction, railway line and air strips. China also has built up vehicles/ carriers to move around at Tibet border, while Indian Army still depends largely upon mules. Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO), other airfields reactivated, current roads building program at Chinese border are meant to “keep an eye” on Chinese and have very less value when it comes to large-scale troop movements. Stationing SU-30 MKI at Chinese borders is the only credible defence on Chinese border, which we have seen lately. Does India have the border infrastructure at Chinese border?Third question is Chinese posses’ long-range artillery, which is not yet employed in decisive manner by India. China has deployed missiles in occupied Tibet and it can hit any part of India it wants. Indian on the other hand has just started building up offensive missile systems, which can harm Chinese at their main land. While Chinese will have no remorse to hit Indian populated centers, Chinese PLA can use Tibetan cities as shields. It is possible that Tibetans will rise in revolt, but it is anybody’s guess if china has not built it into calculation. There are fresh examples of how equipped are the Chinese to contain Tibetans. Indian ABM systems are quite a while away. Will India hurl missiles at Tibetan cities? Can India strike Chinese main land with as much damage that Chinese can inflict on India?

The fourth question is formidable Chinese production units that can churn the required military wares in numbers in the event of war. Not just this, Chinese forces have been using and upgrading their indigenous equipment. On the other hand, Indian Armed forces, especially the Indian Army does not have such foresight and leadership for almost past 3 decades. India will have to import, non-suited equipment from overseas. This was demonstrated during kargil war.
The fifth question is that Chinese can use nuclear weapons first and Chinese have the capability to withstand a nuclear strike and counter strike. Can India boast of such capabilities against the Chinese main land?

The sixth question is that India and China has undefined borders and Tawang is hotly contested. Will India fight the border war on the Indian side of the territory or the territory occupied by the Chinese?

The eighth question is the maturity of Chinese cyber warfare. We have allegedly seen them hacking Indian embassy PC’s. Have Indian cyber warfare team ever tested hacking Chinese networks?

The ninth question is that Chinese trade flows via Indian Ocean. The Chinese are building Navy to operate in Indian Ocean. Will Indian Navy operate on east Chinese sea?

The tenth reason is the Chinese diplomatic influence and they are a permanent 5 nation at UN. They can block any deal in UN, which concerns them. India does not. Can India walk out of UN, when Chinese have an upper hand there?

The eleventh question is the Chinese ASAT test. China has tested its anti-satellite weapon India has not. Will India be able to destroy Chinese assets in space?

The twelfth question is the Chinese economy and economic influence. Chinese economy can sustain a long war with India. Can Indian economy sustain it? Chinese economic power spans from Latin America to Africa. Even USA and Russia have Chinese as major trading partner. How much can India influence?

The final question is Does India fully understands the Chinese threat.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

What a great resource!